Employee survey specialists Stribe analysed 15 years of NHS sickness absence data and also reviewed the most recent NHS worker survey of more than 1 million healthcare workers, reviewing insights that contribute towards staff absences.
The research reveals that sickness rates today are consistently higher than they were before the pandemic. The sickness rate in May 2024 was 4.71%, a significant jump from 3.84% in May 2017. Stribe says this elevated starting point means that when the usual winter pressures hit, the overall absence will be expected to rise.
The main reason staff are off sick is anxiety, stress, depression and other psychiatric illnesses. Mental health accounted for 28.6% of all sickness absence in May 2025, representing over 608,100 days lost. That figure continues to rise, says Stribe.
The upcoming winter peak is expected to be exceptionally severe because the system starts from an already elevated "new normal" baseline.
The research predicts that the combination of seasonal pressures and structural pressures will amplify the health and retention issue across all age groups:
Younger staff retention: chronic dissatisfaction with pay has more than doubled for staff aged 21-30 in the past decade. Rising stress now makes over half (52%) of this youngest group feel unwell from work, making them three times more likely to intend to leave.
Mid-career staff face burnout: staff aged 41 to 65, who already perform the most unpaid overtime, will face extreme workload increases, pushing them further into psychological burnout and moral injury.
The data shows that ambulance trusts consistently report the highest sickness absence, reaching 6.1% in May 2025, Stribe's analysis reveals. The London Ambulance Service hit an extreme peak of 10.94% in May 2020, the highest recorded rate overall, and its rates remain chronically high. The data warns that these services are operating in a state of chronic stress and under-capacity and cannot be expected to recover without aggressive, targeted retention and wellbeing drives.
By comparison, the staff group with the lowest rate was HCHS Doctors (Hospital and Community Health Services) at 1.8%.
The most recent data reveals a clear geographical disparity. The North West region reported the highest sickness absence rate in May 2025 at 5.5%, with the Midlands close behind. In contrast, London and the South East reported the lowest rates, both at 4.2%. This suggests post-pandemic factors are hitting Northern and Central regions disproportionately harder.
In addition, the data reveals that trusts focused on mental health consistently operate with absence rates at 4-5%, underscoring more entrenched staffing and wellbeing challenges.
Lucy Harvey, chief operating officer at Stribe, said: ‘The data provides a clear warning: without targeted, proactive intervention, healthcare faces a record-breaking period of severe staffing strain this winter. The path forward is not just in recruitment, but in creating supportive workplace cultures.'
She added: ‘Healthcare employers must invest in a strong wellbeing infrastructure that tackles workload and psychosocial risks to prevent staff burnout and reduce absences.'
