New legislation on tobacco and vapes is making its way through Parliament. It has come with a pledge of delivering a ‘smokefree generation', which of course would have a major impact on demand for NHS services. However, will this be a classic case of over-promising and under-delivering? When law meets reality, there is only one winner.
The legislation will end tobacco sales to anyone born on or after 1 January 2009. It also gives ministers flexible powers concerning vaping, for example, by regulating flavours, packaging and in store presentation. Finally, it also enables a national retail licensing scheme for tobacco and vaping products. This legislation will fail unless certain realities within the wider context in which it is being introduced are acknowledged and addressed.
The first reality is that laws that aren't enforced are simply slogans. They serve only as an idealistic smokescreen from behind which real change struggles to emerge. The enforcement of the new tobacco and vapes law will mainly fall to trading standards teams within local authorities. These teams have suffered significant funding cuts in recent years, leaving them barely able to operate in some areas. While extra funding has been promised, this will not come close to addressing years of cuts and staff shortages. Rogue retailers are aware of this and will continue to pursue the significant profit available from illegal sales of tobacco and vapes.
The second reality is that smoking is highly addictive and if switching to vaping becomes harder, tobacco use will thrive. A recent Cochrane review of smoking cessation interventions found high certainty evidence that switching to vaping is significantly more effective than the use of nicotine replacement therapy. None of the reviewed studies (short to midterm, up to two years) reported serious adverse events related to vaping use. Of course, vaping is not risk free and evidence on the long-term effects is lacking. Dual use with tobacco, as well as vaping among children, need to be guarded against. However, as a smoking cessation aid, official guidance in the UK is clear that vaping represents an invaluable tool to enable highly addicted smokers to finally move away from the significantly more harmful impact of tobacco.
If the new legislation makes it less likely that smokers will switch to vaping, then the net result will be more tobacco use, not less. Consider flavours and packaging. Child coded branding, cartoonish imagery and confectionary cues should go. As already mentioned, enforcement capability against sales to children needs to increase. But recent research has shown that over-restricting flavoured vape sales to adults is associated with increased cigarette smoking, offsetting the public health benefits of the policy.
The third reality to accept is rooted in inequality. Smoking is significantly higher in socioeconomically deprived areas. It also remains high among those living with mental health conditions. Tackling stubborn smoking prevalence rates in these groups will not be achieved with legislation alone. Rather it requires evidence-led and properly resourced public health action and smoking cessation support. Despite recent increases, however, real-terms public health funding in 2025/26 is still 26% lower per person compared to 2015/16. We are not going to achieve a smokefree generation on the cheap. Public health budgets need to be restored, especially in those areas with the highest smoking rates.
In conclusion, the new tobacco and vapes legislation may fail in its lofty ambitions. If left unaddressed, realities such as crippled enforcement capability, barriers against switching to vaping and the underfunding of public health services, will leave a ‘smokefree generation' as little more than a pipe dream.
