The study by the Nuffield Trust think-tank shows the proportion of 16 -17-year-olds receiving PIP for ADHD or autism in the least deprived fifth of neighbourhoods more than tripled, from 0.8% to 2.5%, while increasing from 2.1% to 5.1% in the most deprived areas.

By 2025, recipient rates in Runnymede and Bracknell Forest – both relatively affluent parts of the London commuter belt – had climbed to around one in 19 and one in 20 16–17-year-olds respectively, up from roughly one in 58 and one in 89 six years earlier.

For 16 to 17 year olds, around £87m was paid to young people living in the 40% least deprived neighbourhoods in 2025, a real terms increase of just under 300% from £22m in 2019 (in 2025/26 prices). For the wider 16-19 age cohort, PIP payments to the least deprived were just over £220m in 2025, up from £64m in 2019 (in 2025/26 prices).

Sally Gainsbury, senior policy analyst at the Nuffield Trust said: ‘Historically, disability and deprivation have been closely linked, because deprivation is both a cause of disability and poor health as well as an effect of it. But our analysis finds that this link is weaker for ADHD and autism, and has weakened further in recent years.'

Gainsbury said the findings could reflect unequal access to diagnosis and also point to inconsistencies and uncertainties in the welfare system and in wider society about how disability is understood and assessed when it comes to autism and ADHD.

The weakening connection between deprivation and PIP recipient rates appeared to be unique to autism and ADHD. Researchers found that this did not apply to PIP for other disabilities received by the 16-17 age group, which relate to learning disabilities, depression, anxiety or physical disabilities.

Total recipient rates were still highest in more deprived areas where insecure employment and low educational achievement are more common.

In Liverpool and Knowsley, recipient rates among 16 to 17-year-olds reached around one in 12 by 2025, up from about one in 35 and one in 57 respectively in 2019.

A DHSC spokesperson said: ‘Last December, we asked clinical psychologist Professor Peter Fonagy to lead an independent review, examining the prevalence of - and support for - ADHD, autism, and mental health conditions. Professor Fonagy's final report will be published shortly, and will inform our new national approach in this area.'

The DHSC said the increase in the PIP caseload has slowed under this Government, falling from 400,000 in the 12 months to July 2024, to 260,000 in the 12 months to July 2026.

It added the Timms Review report due in the autumn, will lay the foundation for sustainable reform.