The idea for a toolkit that could flag the risk of children in Year 5 later becoming NEET came to Bowles when referring Department for Education guidance for Year 10 pupils.

‘When I looked at that toolkit, it surprised me that we weren't looking at the risk younger, because some of the risks that are in there are definitely present earlier in that space,' Bowles said.

She noted 75% of young people who were NEET at 16 in the region had the same risk factors when they were in Year 5.

The ICB, together with the council and a number of Suffolk head teachers, reviewed the Risk of Neet Indicator and adapted it for primary schools, based around specific issues in the county.

‘We met with some local school leaders and talked it through with them at primary school and secondary level, and they agreed that some of the challenges for children were already there in primary, so we've tried to connect some dots,' Bowles explained.

‘I think it's a national known phenomenon that in Year 7 and Year 9 there's quite a cliff edge. Children disengage from education because that's a significant struggling point for them.

‘We looked at Year 5 because we felt there was an opportunity. They've got a year or so left in primary school. Once we've identified these challenges, we can then wrap around the child and their family in the primary school space, where there's a higher ratio of staff to pupils to really help them and get them in a good place to transition to secondary school.'

Fifteen Suffolk schools volunteered to take part in the programme.

The project is targeted at Suffolk schools, having been developed before the ICB's merger with Norfolk.

The NEET rate currently for 16–17-year-olds in Suffolk is 4.7%, above the national average of 3.4%. When including ‘unknown' statistics, however, Bowles said the rate was 5.5%, below the national average of 5.8%.

The ICB head of work & health said low income was the most common challenge in the schools that came forward. Around a third of children in Year Five were from low income households.

What's in the toolkit?

The toolkit provides a roadmap for schools to check for risks identified in NEET cohorts such as low attainment levels, SEND, high absence rates, health needs, family environment, housing or having a sibling who is NEET.

‘Most of them are actually wider determinants of health rather than education attainment,' Bowles explained.

‘What we've said to the schools is, if the child has one of our red warning lights or four or more risks then they need to be on your radar.

‘That's when the school really needs to have a look at the whole situation the child is in and look at all these risk factors together, along with the whole family unit to see if there is anything more we could be doing in this space.'

Once the schools have completed the risk assessment, the toolkit provides a support section flagging local support services for parents.

‘Our role is around how can we help the schools connect with the community assets within their neighbourhoods,' Bowles explained.

There has been no additional funding allocated to the programme.

‘It's more about making the best use of the assets that we've already got and wrapping around the whole family unit and the schools to support them,' Bowles explained.

She said the ICB had left it to school discretion to decide whether parents were informed of a higher NEET risk.

‘A lot of the risk factors that we're talking about are challenges that parents are trying to navigate on a day-to-day basis, so we certainly don't want them to be feeling worse about that,' she explained.

A self-fulfilling prophecy?

Bowles acknowledged concerns expressed by some teachers of the potential risk of children being labelled NEET but added: ‘We should be presenting this to school leaders as our early help and prevention offer for children under their care.'

The head of work & health added she took on board concerns about the NEET label, adding the toolkit's name would be reviewed going forward.

‘We're making that shift into prevention space and that's what this is all about. If we do prevent them from being NEET when they're 16, fabulous,' Bowles said.

‘But actually, this is about improving health outcomes and helping the family unit not have such a challenging time.'

What next?

Looking ahead, Bowles said she hoped to have some early indicators of successful outcomes in terms of family support, improved attainment and transition within the next year.

Assessing the impact on NEET rates for the participating schools will be a longer-term project she acknowledged.

With Alan Milburn's review expected in autumn 2026, Bowles' work is very timely.

‘It's still early days but we are starting to have conversations with the DfE, DHSC, DWP and other areas,' Bowles concluded.

Watch this space.