The new analysis, ahead of the Spending Review on 11 June, comes after the Government said the Casey Commission on social care reform must work ‘within the fiscal constraints of Spending Review settlements'.

Hugh Alderwick, director of policy at The Health Foundation, said: ‘The Spending Review is a chance for the Government to signal its commitment to improving social care by providing a down payment on the investment needed for reform. This would help people get the support they need, ease the burden on unpaid carers, provide a fair wage to care workers and support the NHS.'

The report estimates additional funding that would be needed under three scenarios:

• £3.4bn to meet the growing demand for social care and cover rising costs to employers in 2028/29. By 2034/35 this rises to £9.1bn
• £6.4 bn to meet demand, cover rising costs and improve access to care in 2028/29. By 2034/35 this rises to £12.7bn, based on the cost of providing 10% more care packages.
• £8.7 bn to meet demand, cover rising costs, improve access, and boost pay in 2028/29. By 2034/35 this rises to £15.4bn, based on the cost of paying workers in social care at least the NHS Agenda for Change Band 3.

Despite social care having seen a funding boost since the pandemic, the research found real terms spending per person on social care was 2.6% lower in 2023/24 than in 2009/10, after adjusting for population ageing.

Reaction

Liberal Democrat care and carers spokesperson, Alison Bennett, said: ‘Ministers need to wrap up their social care review by the end of the year and ensure it is implemented at real speed. Anything less will see these costs only balloon further and more people and their loved ones left without the support they deserve.'

Rory Deighton, acute director at the NHS Confederation, said: ‘The fragility of the social care sector is one of the biggest challenges facing the health and wellbeing of our population. Low pay and long hours have led to huge gaps in staffing, with more and more providers closing, feeding instability into a struggling system.

‘That is why it is vital that while we wait for the Casey Review to be completed, the Government acts to stop the social care sector going under which would be bad for people who rely on care and bad for the NHS. It could increase delayed discharges, waiting lists and avoidable costs, and push NHS providers into deficit or to cutting services.'