Using routinely collected clinical data made securely available via the DataLoch collaboration between NHS Lothian and the University of Edinburgh, the machine learning models are able to accurately predict the risk of patient events, such as exacerbations and unscheduled hospital admissions, giving GPs a valuable opportunity to review high risk patients and ensure their treatment is optimised prior to winter.

In partnership with NHS Lothian, Lenus Health calculated risk scores for 25,000 patients in the region resulting in more than 5,000 patients being identified in over 100 GP practices to be prioritised for review over the winter months.

Deidentified data was used to calculate the risk scores to ensure patient confidentiality, with DataLoch securely reidentifying the patients before passing on to GPs to review and optimise treatments. 

Jenny Long, director of primary care for NHS Lothian, said: ‘We recognise the role that data and machine learning can play in unlocking valuable insights to assist GPs in continuing to provide excellent care to their patients.

‘Our work with Lenus Health is an exciting step in unlocking the potential of data to better understand our patients and the risks they face.' 

Dr Jeremy Chowings, deputy medical director primary care for NHS Lothian and GP and Partner at the Leith Surgery, added: ‘The initial outputs show significant promise and have already informed the approach we are taking in advance of winter. This work underlines the importance of data and accurate data coding to allow us to maximise the benefits that AI approaches such as these can bring.'

Lenus Health product director, Andy Simpson, said: ‘Proven, ethical and evidence-based AI models are essential to help re-orientate care for chronic conditions from what is currently a reactive, high cost approach to one that is proactive and preventative.

'By doing so, we not only help patients keep out of hospital but reduce the burden that long-term conditions such as COPD has on the NHS, particularly over winter.'

The use of Lenus Stratify in NHS Lothian marks another advancement in the proactive treatment of COPD, aiming to break the winter crisis cycle. The models initially, developed in Glasgow with leading respiratory specialist, Professor Chris Carlin are now also being rolled out in England to proactively improve patient outcomes.