The ICB said the figure quoted in a report was one of several modelling scenarios in its 10-year strategy. The scenarios also include no reduction in beds in the event of a 0.3% to 0.5% a year rise in productivity.

WNL ICB said neither scenario was a forecast or a plan, adding it had not predicted which was more likely.

The ICB said it was developing and appraising other scenarios and will evaluate the impact of all of its strategic initiatives carefully.

Dr Jo Sauvage, WNL ICB chief medical officer, said: ‘Our 10-year strategy is our commitment to a healthier future for the vibrant and diverse communities of west and north London.

‘We need to make better use of our existing capacity, including tackling the fact that every day more than 800 beds are occupied by people who no longer need to be in hospital. But our ambition must go further. We need to invest in prevention and earlier intervention, reducing avoidable admissions and helping people live longer, healthier lives, rather than simply building more capacity to deal with ill health once it has happened. That is the shift our ten-year strategy is designed to deliver.'

The ICB aims to be investing an additional £360m a year in proactive, community-based care and mental health services by the third year of its strategy.