The 10-year, Nuffield Foundation funded study of the programme, which was launched in the 2000s, evaluated the impact of having greater access to Sure Start early in life on children's development until age 16. 

Sarah Cattan, research fellow at IFS and an author of the report, said: ‘If this Government wants to increase opportunities and boost children's life chances, it should take a serious look at integrated early years services. Programmes such as Family Hubs and Start for Life and a wide range of local initiatives are a step in the right direction. But with total spending of less than £600m last year, the scale of resources is nowhere close to the £2.7bn spent on Sure Start at its peak. Our work shows that integrated early years services, done well, are cheaper than they initially seem once their benefits are taken into account.'

The analysis found Sure Start generated around £2.4bn in long-run benefits for the public purse compared with its peak cost of £2.7bn. This includes savings in health, SEND and children's social care (£0.6bn) and projected higher revenue from income tax and National Insurance contributions (£1.9bn).

In addition, the IFS estimates Sure Start generated around £3.1bn in higher lifetime post-tax earnings for each cohort of children and families who used the centres – or a £7,800 boost to lifetime post-tax earnings for the average person. This is based on the projected lifetime earnings impacts of performing better at GCSEs.

The research found: 

• children who lived within 2.5km of a Sure Start centre early in life were around 1 percentage point more likely to achieve five good GCSEs at age 16 (compared with a baseline of 55% meeting this benchmark in 2010)
• Sure Start led to around 6,700 more hospitalisations of 1-year-olds each year, driven by more infections and illnesses but hospitalisations fell in the long run with 13,150 hospital admissions of 11- to 15-year-olds prevented each year
• early access to Sure Start improved mental health and reduced absences from school, with a 15% drop in unauthorised absences at age 15 but it also increased the share of young people receiving a police caution by age 16 by 1 percentage point (from a baseline of 9% of young people)
• while access to Sure Start reduced the share of children with SEN Support plans at age 16 by 0.7 percentage points (from a baseline of 22%), it had no impact on the more severe needs met through EHCPs. Sure Start also had no impact on the number of children looked after by the social care system
• Sure Start's benefits for children's health were strongest in the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods and for boys, though children from all backgrounds experienced improvements. The educational benefits of Sure Start were stronger for children from ethnic minority backgrounds, but these non-white children also saw larger increases in youth cautions from police.