The IFS said £400m was brought forward for the DHSC from later years at the 2025 Autumn Budget, much below the £16bn top-up in 2024-25 and £8bn in 2023-24.

Last year was the first year since 2013-14 the DHSC neither made a claim to the Treasury Reserve (a contingency for unexpected spending pressures) for operational NHS pressures, nor raided capital budgets to pay for more day-to-day spending.

The IFS said the reduced top-up was partly due to the more generous spending plans for 2025-26, along with improved productivity.

In addition, there was a significant slowdown in activity growth to stay within budget, with elective admissions up by just 0.4% in 2025–26, compared with 9% in 2024–25. Growth in diagnostic tests also slowed from 8% to 3%.

Since the DHSC budget is currently planned to grow more slowly over the next two years than in 2025–26, the IFS said the Government may face a difficult choice between sticking with these budgets or finding more money to improve services quickly enough to achieve its ambitious performance targets.