The IFS research found deteriorating NHS performance, as captured by rising elective care or talking therapy treatment, was to blame, at most, for a small for a small fraction of the overall increase in receipt of health-related benefits among working-age individuals in recent years.

Max Warner, senior research Economist at IFS and an author of the report, said: ‘Our new analysis very strongly suggests that rising NHS waiting lists for elective hospital treatment have not been a major factor behind recent increases in the number of working-age adults receiving benefits for ill health. The main explanation for rising benefit claims almost certainly lies elsewhere. Reducing hospital waiting times is a sensible policy objective, not least as it would benefit those who use the NHS – but we shouldn't necessarily expect it to also deliver a significant reduction in health-related benefit claims. That's a separate policy nut to crack.'

The IFS found local areas that experienced larger increases in NHS waits for elective hospital treatment between 2019 and 2024 did not, on average, experience meaningfully larger increases in disability or incapacity benefit claims. The same was true for areas that experienced larger increases in waiting times for NHS talking therapies.

The research found some signs of a possible relationship between NHS waits and disability benefit claims for mental health and musculoskeletal conditions. Taken on face value, these (weak) relationships suggested that longer NHS waits could perhaps explain something like 7% of the national increase in benefit claims for those specific conditions – though even that is very likely an overestimate, the IFS found.

Dr Layla McCay, director of policy at the NHS Confederation, said: ‘The IFS's analysis provides further evidence of the need for cross-government co-operation, collaboration and investment on health policy, recognising that most policy that impacts people's health is made outside the NHS. This should be evidence-led and focused not just on the NHS, but across the social determinants of health to improve the health of our nation as part of the prevention agenda.'