The number of monthly new awards for working-age disability benefits (personal independence payment, PIP) in England and Wales fell by 8% in the three months to January 2026 and was 37% below the level seen during the post-pandemic peak, according to Department for Work and Pensions statistics.

The IFS highlights the level of new awards is still 38% higher than those seen before the pandemic, however.

Under the OBR's November 2025 forecast, which assumes that PIP applications decline to below the levels in today's data but remain above the pre-pandemic norm, the IFS forecasts real spending on working-age disability benefits, which was £14bn in 2019–20, to rise from £25bn this year to £32bn in 2029–30.

Sam Ray-Chaudhuri, a research economist at IFS and author of this comment, says: ‘Today's statistics show a further decline in the number of people starting a disability benefit award each month. They will make easy reading for the Government, who have expressed concern about the number of recipients of and spending on these benefits.

‘Only time will tell whether this recent pattern will persist. But even if it does, the fiscal cost of the sharp rise in claimants seen since the pandemic is likely to be long-lasting, as recipients typically stay on these benefits for many years. Indeed, on the latest forecasts, real spending on working-age disability benefits is set to be £32bn in 2029–30 – £18bn more than before the pandemic.'

A DWP spokesperson said: ‘The IFS is right to find that the PIP caseload increase is slowing, with our analysis showing it has fallen from 400,000 in the 12 months to July 2024, to 270,000 in the 12 months to January 2026.

‘We're fixing the broken system we inherited by creating a welfare state that works for disabled people and taxpayers and have launched the Timms Review, co-produced with disabled people and their representative organisations - to make sure PIP is fit and fair for the future.'