In new analysis, the think-tank predicts on current trends, 92% of patients will receive treatment within the 35 weeks by 2029, almost double the Government's target.

The new projection represents a downgrade on The Health Foundation's previous projection in September 2025 that the Government would narrowly miss its 2029 target.

Francesca Cavallaro, senior analytical manager at The Health Foundation, said hopes of reaching the target had receded over the past year due to stronger growth in GP referrals. She said more analysis was needed to determine what was behind the increase.

Cavallaro added: ‘Andy Burnham's Government have yet to set out whether they will give the 18-week target the same priority as it had under Keir Starmer, but our analysis shows the pledge is becoming increasingly hard to deliver. While the Government should not give up on bringing down waiting times when millions of people are still waiting too long for treatment, setting a more realistic target would enable the NHS to continue to make progress on elective care and to focus more on improving other key aspects of care that are also important to the public.'

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Acute and ambulance network director at the NHS Alliance, Matthew Hopkins, said: ‘Local NHS leaders are keenly aware of the pain and distress caused by long delays for planned care.

‘They stand ready to build on the progress that's been achieved, but when policy becomes disconnected from operational reality it's patients who pay the price.

‘Let's be honest about where we can get to with the resources available, so there is a clear understanding of what can and cannot be achieved.'

Tim Lane, president of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said: ‘The Government has made a clear promise to restore the NHS waiting time standard. To deliver on that commitment, it must back the NHS with additional investment in surgical capacity, including the workforce, operating theatres and infrastructure needed to treat more patients more quickly and cut lists for good.'

 An NHS spokesperson: ‘As The Health Foundation data shows the NHS is back to delivering its targets and last year met its commitment to treating 65% of patients waiting within 18 weeks despite a significant increase in demand for services.

‘The impact of this is already being felt by patients with, primary care and inpatient surveys showing real improvements in how patients feel about their care, while the British Attitudes Survey shows confidence in the NHS rising for the first time in a number of years.

‘The report does not take into account the changes we're making to how health services are delivered – for example creating many more services outside hospitals in people's neighbourhoods – and while we acknowledge it will be challenging, we remain on course to delivering our commitments by the end of the Parliament.'

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: ‘This Government has made cutting NHS waiting times a central priority, and we are determined to keep pushing towards our 92% target, so more patients can get the treatment they need, when they need it. Already, almost 300,000 fewer people are waiting for treatment now than in July 2024, and more patients are being seen within 18 weeks than at this point last year, but we know there is more work to do in order to maintain that progress.

‘That's why we are investing record funding to fix the NHS estate, opening surgical hubs around the country, ramping up diagnostic activity and rolling out cutting-edge technology, so patients can be diagnosed and treated faster. With that programme of investment and reform, and the hard work of NHS staff, we can keep making the progress on waiting times that everyone wants to see.'